Tongwei shares (600438) 2018 annual report and first quarter results preview comment: 18 years in line with expectations 19 years forward sail

Tongwei shares (600438) 2018 annual report and first quarter results preview comment: 18 years in line with expectations 19 years forward sail
The company’s 2018 performance was in line with expectations, and net profit growth in the first quarter of 19 exceeded 50%. 武汉夜网论坛 In 2018, it achieved operating income of 275.35 billion (+5.53%), net profit attributable to mother is 20.3.1 billion (+0.51%), the performance of the photovoltaic high temperature + battery chip leader is in line with expectations.In the first quarter of 19th, the overseas market continued to have strong demand for 18 years. The price of high-efficiency monocrystalline PERC cells remained high, and the company’s revenue in the first quarter was 61.6.9 billion (+18.14%), net profit attributable to mother 4.9.1 billion (+53.36%).In the second quarter, domestic photovoltaic parity projects and bidding project policies were implemented. Domestic projects were launched in advance, and the amount of parity projects was sufficient. As a result, domestic photovoltaic installations exceeded expectations.With the rapid release of photovoltaic installation demand and high growth in overseas markets, we judge that the first quarter of 1919 is expected to guide the company to gradually achieve success. When the production capacity of the cell was expanded, the cost of non-silicon continued to lead the industry. In 2018, Tongwei Solar achieved polycrystalline cells3.02GW, single crystal battery sheet 3.51GW production, net profit 8.4.1 billion (accounting for 41.41%).The company’s battery capacity reached 12GW (high efficiency single crystal 9GW). The company’s non-silicon costs are currently expected to be zero.25 yuan / W, experienced the new construction of Chengdu Phase IV in March 193.8GW and Emei’s 10GW high-efficiency battery production capacity. By the end of 19, PERC battery production capacity is expected to be 17GW, with a total battery production capacity of 20GW.At the same time, with the release of throughput and the improvement of conversion efficiency, the company’s non-silicon costs will be further diluted, and the cost of global battery chip leaders will be in sync. Short-term orders are full, and cash costs will further decline. Sichuan Yongxiang achieved gradual sales in 20181.92 Initially, single crystals accounted for 70%, and the average production cost dropped to 5.530,000 / ton, net profit 5.1.6 billion (proportion 24.41%).From 2019 to 2020, Tongwei, Longji, and Central will be longer in total12.05 initial budget.As the leader in monocrystalline wafers, Zhonghuan and Longji have planned to continue to increase the production of silicon wafers in 2019. With the long-term cooperation with Longji and Central, the company’s production capacity will be guaranteed.With Baotou and Leshan’s new production capacity gradually full, the company’s leading position in cash costs will continue to expand. Risks suggest that domestic photovoltaic policies have fallen short of expectations; overseas demand has fallen short of expectations. Investment suggestion: Maintain “overweight” rating company is a global high-efficiency battery + scheduled leader.At present, the industry is at an inflection point of substantial improvement in policy expectations. At the same time, the company is at a low point in historical estimates, and it is estimated that there is room for upward revision and constraints on flexibility.Comprehensive relative and absolute estimates, we believe that the company’s reasonable estimate interval is 15.75-18.75 yuan / share, maintain the investment rating of “overweight”.