CITIC Securities (600030) Annual Report 2018 Review-No Short Board Business Waiting for Elephants to Dance
Profit-side performance is obviously expected by industry average, ROE is 6.
20%, the active leverage ratio increased slightly.
The company released its 2018 annual report on the evening of March 21, and the continuous operating income and net profit attributable to mothers decreased by 14 respectively.
The income side is only slightly better than the industry average (-14.
47%), but the profit-side advantage is obviously maximized (industry net profit is reduced by 41.
The company’s overall active leverage ratio is 3.
63, an increase of 0 from 2017.
12 pct; ROE is 6.
20%, a decrease from 2017.
62 pct, but the industry average is still apparent (3.
Brokerage business: Market share increased, institutions and wealth management business went hand in hand.
The market share of the company’s stock-based transactions is implanted6.
09%, an increase of 0 from 2017.
The company’s institutional customer base has further expanded. The total number of QFII and RQFII customers has steadily topped the market. At the same time, the brokerage and retail business has accelerated its transition to wealth management. Until the end of 2018, the total number of company investment consultants reached 2,851, an increase of 46% over 2017.
Investment Banking Business: Refinancing and debt financing continued to lead, and IPO business was slightly inferior.
The company’s equity financing underwriting market share in 201814.
75%, ranking first in the market: Of which the IPO underwriting market share is 9.
29%, an increase of 0 from 2017.
13pct, ranking 4th in the market; the market share of additional underwriting is 15.
89%, up before 2017.
31pct, ranked first in the market.
The amount of debt financing underwriting amounted to 7,659.
1.3 billion with a market share of 5.
11%, ranking first in the industry.
Asset management business: Revenue from asset management business has continued to increase, and the overall scale and initiative scale rank first in the industry.
The company’s asset management business income in 2018 increased by 4 per year.
22%, significantly better than the industry average (-11.
杭州桑拿网As of the end of 2018, the company’s asset management scale was 13,431.
20 trillion, active management scale is 5527.
7 billion, ranking first in the industry.
In the downturn of the market in 2018, the holding subsidiary Huaxia Fund performed well, and the scale of public fund management increased by 12 compared with the end of 2017.
98%, ranked first in the sector of partial-equity funds, and the scale of institutional business asset management continued to remain at the forefront of the industry. Self-operated business: Affected by the market downturn, equity assets shrank, and the proportion of bonds increased significantly.
In 2018, the A-share market experienced a unilateral decline, and as a result, the company’s net income from self-operated business decreased by more than 36.
71%, comprehensive income income 2.
59%; if excluding the influence of caliber (total interest income from other debt investment 8).
55 ppm), the actual comprehensive income injection2.
86%, down 2 before 2017.
From the perspective of position structure, bonds, stocks, funds, derivatives, and other proportions increased or decreased by 17 compared with 2017, respectively.
66 points, -14.
70 points, -7.
90 points, 1.
At 69pct, the share of stocks and funds decreased significantly, and the share of bonds increased significantly.
Core logic: Judging from the current business of brokerage firms, the retail business in the brokerage business is transforming to wealth management, while the proportion of institutional customers is gradually increasing, the investment banking business is shifting to the registration system, and asset management business is back to active management.
The traditional business lines of brokerage firms are all facing capacity upgrade requirements, testing the comprehensive strength of brokerage firms, and further enhancing the industry’s Matthew effect.
As a leading brokerage company, the company has taken the lead in launching counter-cyclical acquisitions using capital strength and operating advantages. The acquisition of Guangzhou Securities has now entered a substantial stage. At the same time, it has implemented the employee stock ownership plan again after 13 years to deeply bind the company’s development and employee interests.Conducive to talent team incentives and continuous business advancement, we are firmly optimistic about the company’s future development.
Earnings forecast and rating: If we consider the impact of the acquisition of Guangzhou Securities, we expect the company’s EPS in 2019-2021 to be 0.
90 yuan, 1.
01 yuan, 1.
18 yuan, the closing price on March 21, 2019 corresponding to PB were 1.
67 times, 1.
57 times, 1.
46 times, maintaining the rating of “prudent overweight”.
Risk warning: market downside risks, market turnover shrinks sharply, and equity margin risks increase