Changan Automobile (000625): Independent sales and profit continue to improve After the listing of Changfu New Car, profit will gradually improve

Changan Automobile (000625): Independent sales and profit continue to improve After the listing of Changfu New Car, profit will gradually improve
Core point of view Changan Automobile’s overall sales in December achieved positive growth.Changan Automobile sold 19 in December.370,000 vehicles, an increase of 9 from the previous month.8%, a previous actual increase of 31%; the previous cumulative sales of 1.76 million vehicles, every 15 years.2%. In the fourth quarter, Changan Automobile sold 53.410,000 vehicles, an increase of 32% from the previous month and an increase of 13 in ten years.6%, a significant improvement.In December, Changan’s own brands, Changfu and Changma both achieved positive sales growth for many years. Changan’s independent sales growth in December, hot-selling products and new models 杭州夜网 are expected to drive 2020 sales and profits to continue to grow.Changan’s own brand sales in December 9.960,000 vehicles, an increase of 11.6%, a significant increase of 81 per year.3%; previous cumulative sales of 850,000 units, an increase of at least 7.8%.The sales volume of independent brands in the fourth quarter was 270,000 units, an increase of 43% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 32%. The quarterly sales growth rate has continued to improve since 2018Q4.Changan CS75 Plus continues to sell well, and Auchan X7 has become another explosive product.In 2020, Changan’s own brand will launch Yidong Plus, a new crossover SUV and E-Rock and other new models.Driven by hot-selling products and new models, sales and profits are expected to continue to grow positively in 2020. Changfu’s single-month sales volume is increasing for the first time. Changfu and Changma’s new models will drive sales and profit improvement. Changfu sold 1 in December.790,000 units, compared with 4 epoxy resin.7%, an annual increase of 0.8%, this year’s first half-year growth; in the fourth quarter, Changfu sales 5.510,000 vehicles, an increase of 2 from the previous month.5%, 20 in ten years.3%, the excess narrowed.In December, Ford Ruiji went public and Lincoln Adventurer started pre-sale. According to the Changan Ford Acceleration Plan, at least 18 new cars will be launched by 2021. Changfu is expected to launch many new models in 2020.Changma sold 1 in December.260,000 vehicles, an increase of 0 from the previous month.7%, an increase of 9 per year.2%; Changma sales in the fourth quarter 3.780,000 vehicles, basically the same as last year, an increase of 8 from the previous month.9%.On the retail side, Changma sold 1 in December.410,000 vehicles, an increase of 16 in ten years.9%, previous cumulative sales of 13.630,000 vehicles in the past ten years16.5%.Mazda 3 Angkeira retail sales for December 1.10,000 vehicles, an increase of 9 from the previous month.5%, steadily climbing.In 2020, Changma is expected to launch a new SUV Mazda CX30 to further complement the style of the model.Driven by several new models of Changfu and Changma, sales and profit are expected to continue to improve. Financial forecast and investment advice: The forecast for 2019-2021 is 0.09, 0.81, 1.05 yuan, due to the company’s expectations, we use PB for estimation.Comparable companies have an average PB of 1 in 19 years.About 33 times, the company will be given PB1 in 2019.33 times estimate, target price 12.9 yuan, maintain BUY rating. Risk warning: Changan Ford sales volume is lower than expected risk, Changan Mazda sales volume is lower than expected risk, Changan independent brand sales volume is lower than expected risk.