Depth-Company-SAIC Group (600104): Short-term performance under pressure to gradually improve in 2020

Depth * Company * SAIC Group (600104): Short-term performance under pressure will gradually improve in 2020

The company released a performance forecast, realizing a net profit of 25.6 billion US dollars in 2019, a year-on-year decrease of 28.

9%, net profit after deduction of 21.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 34%.

The performance forecast for 2019 is expected to increase sales by 11.

5% leads to a decline 成都桑拿网 in performance, and is expected to be a one-time expense provision at the end of the year and a breakthrough in innovative business.

With the gradual recovery of the industry, the company’s sales growth rate in December turned positive, and subsequent improvements gradually improved the performance.

In addition, overseas markets and SAIC Audi are expected to become important growth points in the future.

In 2019, the company’s new energy sales increased against the market, and independent joint ventures went hand in hand. The results of intelligent networking were remarkable, and the competitiveness of the entire vehicle and core components continued to lead.

We expect the company’s estimated earnings for 2019-2021 to be 2 respectively.

19 yuan, 2.

74 yuan and 3.

05 yuan, maintain BUY rating.

The main 杭州桑拿 points of the official rating are under pressure from short-term performance, which is expected to recover in the future.

Company Q4 sells cars 182.

40,000 vehicles over 10,000 yuan 4.

3%, it is expected that the one-time expense accrual at the end of the year, coupled with the interruption of innovative business, will result in a profit of 48 in Q4.

100 million, a decline of about 42 a year.

3%.

With the initial recovery of the industry, the company sold 69 cars in December.

80,000 vehicles (+5.

8%), the growth rate has turned positive.

In 2020, Volkswagen and GM will increase high-end MPVs, Chevrolet Trailblazers, Cadillac CT4 and other models, and will automatically add MPV and other models and realize new energy product replacement. Subsequent sales will gradually improve and promote performance recovery.

The luxury car market is promising, and SAIC Audi is ready to go.

The consumption upgrade of the domestic auto market is continuing. According to the data from the China Automobile Association, the domestic passenger car sales in 2019 ranked 9th.

6%, but sales of luxury cars such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi still achieved positive growth.

According to the Auto House report, SAIC Audi is expected to achieve mass production and sales in 2021.

SAIC Volkswagen’s progressive customer base is huge, and SAIC Audi’s domestic production prospects are promising.

Luxury car profit margins are generally high, SAIC Audi’s domestic production is expected to drive performance growth.

The overseas sales volume has grown rapidly, and the layout of the blue ocean market is promising.

In 2019, the company will export 350,000 vehicles (+26.

5%), ranking No. 1 in the country for four consecutive years and accounting for 33%.

Advanced new energy, Internet cars and other differentiated means, MG EZS, Hector, etc. achieved better results.

With the continuous improvement of the strength of domestic car companies, the overseas market will be a key blue ocean market in the future. The company’s vehicle products have entered more than 60 countries on 5 continents, and the future prospects are promising.

The competitiveness of new energy and intelligent network connectivity continued to lead.

In 2019, the company’s new energy sales exceeded 180,000 vehicles (+ 30%), ranking second in China.

In November 2019, the SAIC-Volkswagen MEB new energy plant was completed, and the overall MassMEB and GM BEV3 projects were smoothly advanced.

Independent joint ventures go hand in hand, and new energy development continues to be optimistic.

In April 2019, the company released the world’s first mass-produced model Roewe MARVEL X Pro that reached the level of L3 intelligent driving. In November, SAIC launched the world’s first “5G + L4 level intelligent driving heavy truck” demonstration operation, and the intelligent network independently developed by the companyThe key components of Lianlian (vehicle-level intelligent network controller, intelligent driving controller) were successfully launched.

The company has actively invested in new energy and intelligent network connection, and its core competitiveness has continued to lead, which is conducive to the company’s long-term development. It is estimated that due to the short-term downturn in the industry, we have lowered our profit forecast and expect the company’s earnings to be 2 in 2019-2021.

19 yuan, 2.

74 yuan and 3.

05 yuan.

The company’s sales growth in December turned positive, which is expected to continue to benefit from the recovery of the automotive industry. The current estimated horizontal shift is to maintain the Buy rating.

The main risks faced by the rating are 1) market competition intensifies, sales volume and profit margins decline; 2) Sino-US trade conflict continues to escalate.