Tongwei shares (600438) major events comment: Attack photovoltaic giant

Tongwei shares (600438) major events comment: Attack photovoltaic giant
Matters: On February 11, the company released the “Development Plan for High-Purity Crystalline Silicon and Solar Cell Business 2020-2023”, meanwhile, the company announced “About the investment and construction of 30GW of high-efficiency solar cells and supporting projects”. Comment: Reduce costs and increase efficiency to promote capacity expansion, the sword refers to the global silicon material leader.The company announced its high-purity long-term business plan for 2020-2023: it plans to achieve a maximum capacity of 8 in 2020 and a capacity of 11 in 2021.5-15 variables, the maximum capacity of 15-22 will be achieved in 2022, and the output of 22-29 will be around 2023.It is expected that the proportion of single crystal materials will remain above 85%, and the proportion of N-type materials will be 40% -80%.At the same time, the company also raised new requirements for cost planning. It is expected that production costs will be controlled at 3-4 million tons / ton; cash costs will be controlled at 2-3 million tons / ton.Along with the company’s new investment in silicon business in Leshan / Baotou, the company actively promotes a new round of capacity expansion, pointing to the global photovoltaic silicon material faucet. Promote the application of new technologies and build a new base for photovoltaic cells.The company also announced a battery expansion plan: it is expected to achieve a battery capacity of 30-40GW in 2020, a battery capacity of 40-60GW in 2021, a battery capacity of 60-80GW in 2022, and a battery capacity of 80-100GW in 2023.In terms of technology, the company is expected to promote the application of Perc +, Topcon and HJT technology routes. The product size is compatible with 210mm and below silicon wafers.For non-silicon costs, the company expects Perc to drop to zero.Below 18 yuan / watt.Based on this plan, the company also announced plans to invest 20 billion yuan in Sichuan Jintang County to build a 30GW photovoltaic cell base.It is estimated that the first phase and the second phase will invest 4 billion yuan each and build 7 respectively.5GW; the third and fourth phases will each invest 杭州桑拿网 6 billion yuan and build 7 respectively.5GW. Foreign countries have accelerated their withdrawal from silicon doping, and leading expansion has continued to increase.According to the 2019 annual report published by the South Korean OCI on February 11, it is planned to accrue 750.5 billion won (44.2.8 billion yuan), reassessed 5 additional production capacity at the Gunsan Base.According to a report by Bloomberg New Energy, OCI is expected to shut down the Gunsan plant on February 20 for upgrades.Among them, the P1 line is scheduled to resume production on May 1 to produce semiconductor fillers. The resumption time of P2 and P3 has not yet been determined.According to the financial data disclosed by OCI, the gross profit margin in the fourth quarter of 2018 was -6%, the gross profit margin in the third quarter of 2019 was –南京龙凤网8%, and the gross profit margin in the fourth quarter of 2019 was -10%, which continued to deteriorate.EBITEA’s gross profit margin for Q4 in 2018 was 5%, gross profit margin for Q3 2019 was 3%, and gross profit margin for Q4 2019 was 2%, which is basically at the level of cash costs.The reorganization of the OCI Gunsan Silicon Material Plant released this time marks that overseas silicon material enterprises have regained their advantages over domestic enterprises, and domestic silicon material factories are expected to shift it back to the concentration of 5 companies, and the competition pattern continues to improve. Maintain the company’s “strong push” rating.As the world’s leading supplier of photovoltaic cells and supplementary materials, the company actively promotes the application of new technologies and capacity expansion, and seizes market share.We are optimistic about the long-term growth space of the photovoltaic industry after entering parity and the profitability of related companies.Due to the higher-than-expected increase in silicon material prices in Q4 in 2019 and the rise in the price of the industrial chain in 2020 brought by the industry chain clearance after this round of price changes, we slightly adjusted the company’s profit forecast for 2019-2021 to 27.6.2 billion / 37.8.7 billion / 46.0.7 billion (previous value was 28.75 billion / 36.10 billion / 44.3.6 billion), the corresponding EPS is 0.71 yuan / 0.98 yuan / 1.19 yuan, taking into account the growth after parity, we give the company a 2020 target price of 22 times conversion.56 yuan, maintaining the “strong push” level. Risk warning: The price of the industrial chain is lower than expected, and the demand for photovoltaic installation is lower than expected.